DESKTOP LINUX TECHNOLOGY & MARKET OVERVIEW

FOREWORD
For several years now, many people involved with computing and the Internet have harbored hopes
that Linux might become a viable end-user operating system for a broad population. There has been
great frustration with problems and limitations of commercial offerings, especially to the extent that
the original goals of computers as tools of empowerment for individuals seem to have lost
momentum. In turn this frustration has fueled the wish for an alternative which could evolve
through the inclusive and open-ended dynamics of open source development.
At the same time, it is an undeniable truth that while Linux-based server software has matured to
become an integral and vital component of the global information infrastructure, as yet Linux on the
desktop has remained on the periphery. Recently, I initiated a project on behalf of OSAF to take a
careful look at the state of Linux on the desktop, and asked Bart Decrem to spearhead a short-term
research project to assess the current situation and trends.
As you can read, while we do not believe a revolution is in the offing, there is a great deal of good
news about what has already been accomplished, and even more about what is very likely going to be
happening with adoption of desktop Linux, especially considering the situation outside the U.S. A
further piece of good news is that, by and large, there do not appear to be intractable obstacles to the
continuing growth of adoption of Linux as an end-user OS.
I hope readers will find this report timely and valuable. I encourage your feedback, which may be
sent to desktop-linux-report@osafoundation.org.
Mitch Kapor,
Open Source Applications Foundation
July 10, 2003
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1   Executive Summary......................................................................................................................... 5
2   Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 6
3   The Long Linux March to the Desktop........................................................................................... 6
4   The Adoption Cycle ........................................................................................................................ 7
    4.1 Looking back.......................................................................................................................... 7
    4.2 Factors and trends that are favoring Linux desktop adoption............................................... 7
    4.3 The Linux desktop adoption cycle....................................................................................... 10
5 Desktop Linux: The State of the Product...................................................................................... 11
    5.1 The desktop ......................................................................................................................... 11
    5.2 The desktop developer platform ......................................................................................... 12
    5.3 Hardware support................................................................................................................ 13
    5.4 Core apps: Browser.............................................................................................................. 14
    5.5 Core apps: PIM..................................................................................................................... 15
    5.6 Core apps: Productivity suite............................................................................................... 15
    5.7 Core apps: Instant messaging .............................................................................................. 16
    5.8 Core apps: Multimedia support........................................................................................... 16
    5.9 Other applications................................................................................................................ 16
    5.10 Connectivity with Windows ................................................................................................. 17
6 The Desktop Linux Eco-system..................................................................................................... 18
    6.1 Linux distributions............................................................................................................... 18
    6.2 KDE, GNOME, other desktops platforms............................................................................. 18
    6.3 Open source application developers................................................................................... 19
    6.4 Commercial end-user ISV community ................................................................................. 19
    6.5 OEMs.................................................................................................................................... 20
    6.6 Distribution channels........................................................................................................... 20
    6.7 Consortia, other organizations ............................................................................................ 21
    6.8 News, conferences and support resources .......................................................................... 22
    6.9 Customers ............................................................................................................................ 22
7 Market Adoption........................................................................................................................... 23
    7.1 Technical users..................................................................................................................... 23
    7.2 Transactional workers.......................................................................................................... 23
    7.3 Knowledge Workers............................................................................................................. 24
    7.4 SMB sector ........................................................................................................................... 24
    7.5 Education ............................................................................................................................. 25
    7.6 Public Sector ........................................................................................................................ 26
    7.7 Consumers ........................................................................................................................... 27
    7.8 Non-PC devices .................................................................................................................... 27
    7.9 Outside of the United States ................................................................................................ 28
8 The Future .................................................................................................................................... 30
    8.1 Assumptions......................................................................................................................... 30
    8.2 Predictions ........................................................................................................................... 30
    8.3 Leverage points .................................................................................................................... 31
9 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................... 33
Footnotes .............................................................................................................................................. 34
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